Likviduoju visa nafta (107.19; 105.54) 106.28. -8 punktai total.

TALO, labai netinkamu momentu pirmą užėjimą padarei.
O šiaip - senokai nebuvo TA atžvilgiu tokios patinės situacijos, kokia yra susidariusi nuo birželio 14 dienos iki dabar. Žiūrint iš dviejų ciklų per mėnesį pozicijos.

.oOo. sutinku, pagal TA , buvo netinkamas. Pagal situacija Irake tuo metu buvo labai tinkamas. Taigi, bendrai paemus nieko su tuo uzejimu ir neivyko. Kaip pats matei, turejau gal 5 kartus galimybe uzdaryt zymiai auksciau. Bet mano strategija nebuvo mesti kaip tik antra dalis iseis i pliusa. Nieko, palauksim 104.

1:0 TA naudai?

si kart, taip. tiesa sakant dar buciau palaikes, jei ne Putinas su prasymu atsaukti leidima ivesti kariuomene. Sitas trumpu laikotarpiu nafta damusti turetu. na, ir techniskai, ties 104.10-50 zona, as jau vel lauksiu su Irako veliavele. Jei zinoma, iki to laiko neismes kokio sposo.

Aš čia primečiau iš akies, kaip tik maždaug ant trečiadienio galimas tolesnis pratęsimas į viršų.
JEIGU kaina vis tebebus tame pat 105,25-107,30 diapazone.
Jeigu kirs 105,25, tada ir aš laukčiau maždaug 104.
Iš tikrųjų nenoriu spėlioti. Man mano TA pilnai pakanka tinkamam įėjimo momentui nustayti ;)

Kažkodėl galvojau, kad šiandien pirmadienis. Antradienis pasirodo
Tai jeigu bus breakout į viršų, tai maždaug ketvirtadienį.

Čia šiomis valandomis Isis su Irako pajėgomis dalijasi didžiausią Irake naftos gamyklą, radot laiką...

Here's a summary of the latest developments today:

There have been more competing claims about the status of Iraq's main oil refinery at Baiji. Sunni militants said they had seized the plant amid reports that troops guarding it had agreed to leave in return for safe passage out. But the government insisted that insurgents were not in full control, despite video showing Isis supporters celebrating its apparent fall.

Iraqi government air strikes around Baiji killed at least 19, according to officials. A further 17 people were wounded.

ismetu EURUSD long (3519) 'ant 3519.


perku nafta WTI 101.56 .kiekis didesnis taip sakant . ilgam.


XAU long, WTI long, GBPUSD short, DJ short

The USO advance from 36.58 should be a corrective retracement within the larger downtrend. Whether it's complete remains to be seen. I'll lean on the futures for guidance where trade above 103.45 should be a good sign that wave ii is still subdividing. Conversely, trade below 101.48 (maybe 101.79) would open the possibility that it has run its course. If higher highs are still in store, the market doesn't have any business trading above the 39.44 wave (b) peak (106.64 in the futures).








The UNG didn't post a new sell-of low as the futures did, but it did bounce rather smartly. The next big move should be a healthy countertrend advance and I suspect that it's underway from Wednesday's 20.75 low. Wave iv should find good resistance around 22.51 to 22.92, the 38.2% retracement of the wave iii decline and the end of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree – common areas of resistance for fourth wave retracements. I'll need to reassess if 20.75 can't hold (3.744 in the futures), but it won't alter the idea that the market is in the final throes of the wave iii decline. Looking ahead, a five-wave decline from the wave (b) peak would give the wave ((ii)) retracement enough legs to count it complete.




Repeating: This applies to the UNG as well as the USO. Contango, where the prompt month futures contract is cheaper than the deferred can adversely impact an ETF's performance when the fund rolls futures contracts from a lower-priced contract into a higher-priced contract prior to expiration. The opposite condition is known as backwardation, where the prompt month trades at a premium to the deferred. It can have a negative impact on short positions when the fund rolls from a higher-priced contract into a lower-priced contract.








The pop above 100.66 leave the price action from the 101.52 record high with a corrective (i.e., three-wave) look. This suggests that the wave ((a)) advance has yet to conclude. I've adopted the alternate count showing the market in wave v of (v). It's early, but given the choppy start, an ending diagonal fifth wave seems like the higher probability view. In any event, higher highs should lie ahead. Possible upside objectives are 102.28 and 108.84, where the length of wave v of (v) equals .618 time the length of wave i and then 100%. On the downside, I'll reassess if the 98.14 wave iv low fails to hold.

Repeating: I've labeled wave X as a triangle, but I'd note that wave ((d)) nicked the wave ((b)) peak, so it's not a "textbook" example of a triangle. The XOI sports a cleaner one.









Repeating: As with WTI, labeling the 2008 record peak as the end of the Cycle wave V advance is a perfectly valid interpretation and fits well with EWI’s deflationary forecast. Either way, the two counts should stay directionally aligned until the better count prevails.





The high degree of inconsistency between the timing and magnitude of the ups and downs in Crude relative to E&P stocks (as reflected by the NYSE Euronext Oil and Gas Index (www.nyse.com)) remains well pronounced. It’s clear from the price charts that Crude and E&P stocks tend to trend along side of one another, but when tides turn, don't be surprised if the tops and bottoms aren't concurrent.

I'm still leaning towards a larger, more proportional countertrend advance (for a second wave retracement) before the larger downtrend re-emerges. Trade above 108.62 should be a good sign that I'm on the right track. Possible wave ii objectives are 109.82 and 111.69, where the length of wave ((Y)) of ii equals the length of wave ((W)) and then the 1.618 multiple. I'll need to reassess if 106.83 can't hold, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that wave ii has ended.

Repeating: Given the ongoing disparity between the prompt and continuation charts, I'll lean on the continuation chart for guidance.

Repeating: A (()) in the text denotes a circled number/letter on the chart.

Natural Gas scored a slightly lower low for the move at 3.744 and then reversed. The pop above 3.817 and subsequent follow through on the heels of the storage report leads me to believe that an interim bottom is in place and that a countertrend advance has begun. Assuming so, the market should trend on up from 3.744. The next hurdle to cross is Monday's opening gap (3.893-3.934). Wave iv should find good resistance around 4.074 to 4.146, the 38.2% retracement of the wave iii decline and the end of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree – common areas of resistance for fourth wave retracements. I'll need to reassess if 3.744 can't hold, but it won't alter the idea that the market is in the final throes of the wave iii decline. Looking ahead, a five-wave decline from the wave (b) peak would give the wave ((ii)) retracement enough legs to count it complete. The argument would start if the rally were to exceed 4.278, which would be lofty for a fourth wave retracement (i.e., >618% of the wave iii decline).

Note: It's not a timing indicator, but the market is deep into oversold territory (see the RSI) and ripe for a relief rally.

Natural Gas has a strong tendency to "bottom out" in the July-September time-frame. Significant lows have been registered in 6 of the last 10 years and 14 of the past 20 (60% & 70% of the time respectively). The seasonal "hotspot" is the back half.












According to the EIA, the supply of working gas in underground storage hit a seasonal low of 822 Bcf the week ending March 28. You have to go back to 2003 to find a lower storage level, when the “withdrawal” season (i.e., winter) ended with 654 Bcf of natural gas in storage the week ending March 14. Similarly, prices spiked to a late-February high and then plunged to an early-April low. 2003 may offer a fractal price parallel for 2014. In 2003, prices bounced from early-April into early-June and then sold off to a final low in late-September, which coincidentally, falls in a strong seasonal hotspot for bottoms. From an Elliott perspective, that was an A-B-C correction. The ensuing advance ended in December 2005 at the 15.780 all-time high. The turning points aren't likely to be as precise going forward, but it's easy to envision a similar track: a big bounce from the early-April low followed by an even bigger sell-off – done & done.



The working assumption is that the Primary wave ((A)) decline ended at the 1.902 continuation low from April 2012. Wave ((B)) should test the 2005 record high before it concludes.




The data used to construct this chart is the annual average "Wellhead" price published by the DOE/EIA though 1996 – NYMEX futures thereafter.

Crude's new low for the move keeps my count on track, but I'd note that you could still make an alternate case for labeling the decline from last week's 103.45 high as leading diagonal wave (1). I have my doubts, but in any event, the market should ratchet on down until a large five-wave decline from 103.45 is evident. Trade below the 99.01 continuation wave i low should be a good sign that I'm on the right track. On the upside, trade above 103.34 would suggest that wave ii has yet to conclude.

Sveiki. Gal kas turit šių metų balandžio gegužės ir birželio naftos fjučerių paskutinės prekybos dienos datas? Tai yra kada paskutinė balandžio mėn. fjučerio prekybos diena ir t.t.

oOo pliusas raštu, nes kitaip dar neleidžia

oOo, ka manai su nafta. Rytuose jau atsivere pandoros skrynia ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28627158 , Libija veiksmas intensyveja. Aciu idiotams vakarieciams , kurie pasalino Kadafi finansuodami sukilelius.

Irake ISIS uzeme dvi naftos versloves ir uztvanka , kuria grasina susprogdinti ir uztvindinti miestus. Demokratija ne is tolo nekvepia irgi.

TALO, žiūrint iš techninės pusės, manau, kad iki mėnėsio vidurio dirbsim 95,5-99,5 diapazone. Ilgesniu laikotarpiu esu nusiteikęs labiau meškiškai, negu buliškai.
Gal dar bandys fortepioną užtempti maždaug iki 103-104. Bet paskutinis pusmėnesis nuo liepos 21 iki rugpjūčio 1 pagadino bulišką vaizdą kaip reikiant.

as kazkaip itariu kad technika cia neveiks.... raus statmenai. Britai dirba pagrinde naftos verslovese. Cia viesa paslaptis. Uz 3 menesius 10-15 k svaru gauna ir isvyksta (priedai dideli uz rizikos zona). Kadangi evakuoja visus naftos versloviu darbuotojus (britus) , tai manau , kad ten totali sikna prasidejo.

TALO, jeigu raus statmenai, tai nemanau, kad aukščiau 103-104. Bet ant to ir užsprings.
IMHO.
Naujienos irgi yra spekuliacija.
Pažiūrėsim kaip čia iš tikrųjų bus. Tiesiog šiai dienai į buliškas nuotaikas aš žiūriu skeptiškai. Bet tai man netrukdys prie progos ir į viršų padirbėti

Pradedant nuo 95,5 sutikčiau padirbėti į viršų kokis 4-5 dolerius.
Bet dabar tik ilgesnių šortų išbaidymas gali būti...

Kodėl naftos swap taip svyruoja? Nuo ko jis priklauso? Žiūriu nemažas, vien dėl jo galima laikyti kol žemiau 100.