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Gold mineriai kaip tik uzbaigtu wave 2, tikiuosi gerai uzeit toj vietoj, ypac ant silver mineriu

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Siandien mano kaimynas, beje pasiturintis, klause kur qaut rusisiku auksiniu rubliu. Manau tai zenklas, kad kritimas qalimas...

Siuo kaimyno kalusimu suformulavau uzduoti Chat Gpt. Ir nors atsakyma as zinau kaip tai atrodo is socionomines puses, bet platesnis paaiskinimas yra toks:

There are several historical episodes where gold began rising before the broad public fully accepted the inflation/debasement story. But the lag differs substantially depending on what we call “public recognition.”

The clearest examples are 1976–80 and 2001–08. A weaker example is 2020–22.

1. 1976 → 1980: the classic example

Gold bottomed at about $103/oz in August 1976. The World Gold Council confirms that low.

Gold then started rising, but the really broad public/speculative participation came much later.

Date Gold / inflation development
Aug 1976 Gold bottom ~$103
1977 Gold begins sustained recovery
1978 Gold accelerates
1979 Inflation becomes an overwhelming public/investor issue
Jan 1980 Gold peaks ~$850
1980 Inflation reaches ~13–16% in US

By 1979, speculative demand had exploded. An IMF analysis estimated speculative demand at 14–15m oz in 1979 versus ~5m oz in 1978, explicitly linking the increase to accelerating inflation and expectations of a currency crisis.

So:

Gold bottom → major public/speculative inflation recognition: ~3 years.

And from the 1976 bottom to the ultimate January 1980 peak was about 3 years 5 months.

The important point is that gold did not wait for CPI to become extreme. Gold was already rising before inflation reached its later extremes. CME's historical work similarly finds gold and silver rose before inflation peaked in the 1970s; in the 1977–80 episode, gold peaked roughly nine months before inflation itself peaked.

2. 2001 → 2007/08: probably the most relevant modern comparison

This one is particularly interesting for your question.

Gold made its major secular bottom around 2001, near $250–$275.

Then:

2001 → 2003:
Gold rises, but the investment public largely doesn't care.

2004 → 2006:
The bull market becomes increasingly recognized.

2007 → 2008:
Inflation, commodities, oil, housing/credit problems and monetary-policy concerns become mainstream.

The RBA noted in 2007 that major gold movements historically related to inflation, USD movements and economic/financial uncertainty.

But here's the fascinating part:

Gold had already been rising for ~6 years before the 2007–08 inflation/commodity boom became a mainstream macro story.

So I'd characterize it as:

2001 gold bottom → ~2006/07 broad recognition = ~5–6 years.

And:

2001 bottom → 2008 crisis/public gold enthusiasm = ~7 years.

This is a much longer lag than the 1970s.

3. 2020 → 2021/22: much shorter

Gold's COVID-era cycle is different.

Gold bottomed around $1,450–1,500 in March 2020 during the liquidity panic.

Then enormous monetary/fiscal stimulus arrived almost immediately.

Gold reached ~$2,075 in August 2020.

But initially the public wasn't necessarily saying:

"This is an inflation/debasement cycle."

That narrative became much more mainstream during 2021, when inflation moved sharply higher.

So approximately:

March 2020 bottom → mainstream inflation recognition: ~1–1.5 years.

However, there was already substantial investor participation in 2020. The World Gold Council reported that investment demand and ETF inflows surged during the COVID shock.

Therefore, I would not classify 2020 as a clean example of the public being late in the same way as 1976–80 or 2001–08.

The really interesting pattern

If we simplify the historical episodes:

Cycle Gold bottom Broad inflation recognition / major public participation Approx. lag
1970s Aug 1976 ~$103 1979 ~3 years
2000s 2001 ~$250–275 2006–08 ~5–7 years
2020s Mar 2020 ~$1,450–1,500 2021 ~1–1.5 years

So the historical range is roughly 1–7 years, with the two strongest long-duration examples being 3 years and 5–7 years.

And there's an important distinction

The public doesn't necessarily buy gold when inflation starts.

They tend to become enthusiastic when they finally believe:

“This inflation isn't temporary.”

That's a much later realization.

The Federal Reserve's historical analysis is useful here: from 1971 to around 2000, long-term inflation expectations and real gold prices generally moved together, while the 1971–80 increase in inflation expectations coincided with gold's huge rise.

But gold can start anticipating the problem years before the CPI data make it obvious.

Why this matters for the current cycle

This is where your question becomes particularly interesting.

If we treat the 2022 gold low (~$1,620) as the beginning of the current secular inflation/debasement phase, then we're already about 4 years into it.

And yet broad public participation in gold has historically tended to arrive after several years of price appreciation, rather than at the beginning.

That makes the 2001 → 2007 analogy particularly relevant in terms of timing: gold can spend years climbing while the dominant public narrative remains something like:

“Gold has already gone up too much.”

Then the narrative changes to:

“Maybe inflation/debt/monetary problems are structural.”

And that is when participation can accelerate.

One caveat: gold is not a pure inflation indicator. The World Gold Council estimates that changes in US CPI explain only about 16% of gold-price variation since 1971. So the historical lag shouldn't be treated as a mechanical forecasting rule.

For your Fibonacci thesis, I'd focus on this specific historical feature:

1976 → 1979: ~3-year recognition lag
2001 → 2007: ~6-year recognition lag

If the current cycle behaves more like the 2001 cycle, then the fact that inflation/debt concerns are only now becoming increasingly mainstream would not necessarily mean the gold move is late. It could mean the market is still somewhere in the pre-mass-participation phase.

That is much more consistent with a scenario where the large public “pile-in” occurs substantially above the level where the current bull market began, rather than near its initial bottom.

Visas sis socionominis elgesys labai gerai atsispindi market data, kur platus publikos dalyvavimas Aukso fronte yra dar labai toli priekyje, greiciausiai kai Aukso kaina bus virs 10K tai turetu trigerint tam tikrus jausmus kad "jau laikas investuot i Auksa"

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Ant Copper tiketinas tolimesnis dropas, del tribangio judejimo nuo Geguzes men

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o tai pas ju vatinukus ne benzinas pirmoje vietoje? ar ant arkliu jau perejot? Greiciausiai jokio kaimyno nera,bet vata leidžia sau pafantazuoti,kai tokia šikna huilostane.

Pagal Kenedy korekcija ant sp500 baigta ir nauja koja iki ATH turi prasidet

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Aukso situacija ta pati-korekcija baigta ir wave 5 priekyje

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Niekada nebraižau, neatlieku techninės analizės.
Pagal geopolitinę situaciją aišku, kad aukso kaina linkusi kilt.

Visada braizau ir visada atlieku technine analize ir tikimybiu kalkuliacijas, nes is to valgau duona. Is geopolitines situacijos duonos valgyt man neiseina, tad stickinu prie to ka suprantu.
Tavo prekybos strategija nera lygi manajai ir jei manai kad turi geresne-mielai kvieciu cia dalintis ir irodyt priesingai. Kitu atveju tai tik tuscias oras ta tavo geopolitika ir tavo komentaras

Auksas panasu yra vietoje kur istoriniai analogai pradejo nauja banga i virsu.

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Ką kviečiai su pupelėm rodo?

Pagal geopolitiką labai gerai veikia strategija "pirk tope ir parduok dugne"

Not so fast

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Pilnai tiketina arbitras. Ko pasekoje negaliu buti all in. Bet tuo tarpu pildau siandien ant uzdarymo gold and silver minerius, nes o kodel ne jei marketas juos selina.

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Pas mane viskas tikra, nera nieko fake. jei sakau-taip ir yra.

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Kitu atveju Silver Junior laukia firerworks, nes ignoruot kairej pusej esancios penkiabanges nevalia.

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Pildau siandien Uranium, copper ir resource etfus. Cia gal daugiau FOMO suveike tad mazinu kiekius. Daugiau perku tik kai dipas buna, bet sioj vietoj man atrodo kad busius suklydes ant copper laukdamas didesnio dipo, tad bent kazkiek reikia dasipirkt. Visi tie copper bears pasvoviai buna ismaudomi. Stoku indeksai naujam uptrende, skola toliau bus generuojama tad copper nera kito kelio kaip tik ATH, kas duos boost resource etf'ams

vienintele poza kurios seniai nekliudau yra WDS. Turiu priestaringus vertinimus sioj vietoj tad neskubu pildyt, bet per paskutinius 4 metus susirinkau gerai divu is jos ir profito kai perbalansuodavau pozicija

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