Man patinka prekiauti sidabro ir aukso Sprott fondais. Komisiniai mizerni, judėjimas geras.

The true Silver deficit for the last 8 years exceeds 5 billion ounces.


Real demand, overstated recycling, and understated industrial and solar usage have masked a structural shortage orders of magnitude larger than the Silver Institute admits.
The Silver Academy
Jul 10


Readers already know that the official silver story rarely matches lived reality on the ground. The Silver Institute’s balance sheets are a case study in how methodology, quietly tweaked and retroactively revised, can turn a structurally tight market into a comfortably “manageable” one on paper.

The methodology problem
Over three decades, the Institute has repeatedly changed how it slices demand categories: photography sometimes inside “industrial,” sometimes not; solar invisible until 2010, then a discrete line; and periodic re‑baselining of old data with no explanation. When you lay their reports side by side and force true apples‑to‑apples comparisons, the pattern is not random noise; it is systematic erosion of past demand.

The most brazen example came in the 2020 survey, when industrial demand for 2011 was retroactively cut from the mid‑600‑million‑ounce range to just over 500 million, and 2012 from about 600 million to 450 million. Across 2011–2020, the Institute erased roughly 1.1 billion ounces of industrial demand, plus another ~180 million across jewelry and silverware—a 1.3‑billion‑ounce deletion, nearly two full years of mine supply. No technical note, no footnote, no mea culpa. Just a new “truth” for the industry to parrot.

What the numbers now claim
In their current framework, industrial demand excluding solar and photography sits around 466 million ounces today—lower than their own 2019 estimate for 2011 and implying an 11% decline over a fifteen‑year period that saw smartphones, 5G, EVs, data centers, drones, and global GDP explode. On their math, silver becomes the only major industrial metal whose usage per unit of GDP collapses by more than half, from roughly double‑digit millions of ounces per trillion dollars of GDP to about half that level.

Stack that against copper, nickel, and aluminum: copper demand up around 300% since 1990, nickel over 400%, aluminum near 400%, while industrial silver (ex‑photography) is up only about 75%. If silver had simply tracked copper’s growth path, industrial demand today would be in the 800‑plus‑million‑ounce range instead of the mid‑400s, adding hundreds of millions of ounces to the annual deficit.

Solar and the “thrifting” narrative
Solar is where the story turns surreal. Installed PV capacity has gone from low double‑digit gigawatts around 2010 to well over 600 GW by the mid‑2020s. Yet silver use in PV is reported at only about 151 million ounces and even falling nearly 20% year‑over‑year. The yawning gap between gigawatts added and silver reported is waved away with a single magic word: “thrifting.”

Run the basic math: if per‑panel silver loadings had stayed flat, today’s capacity would imply multi‑billion‑ounce annual demand from solar alone. Even granting realistic efficiency gains and modest thrifting, PV should still be drawing several hundred million ounces, not 151. To reach that low figure, silver content per watt would have to be cut at aggressive double‑digit percentages every year for more than a decade, precisely while more silver‑intensive technologies like TOPCon took over. At that point, “thrifting” stops looking like engineering progress and starts looking like accounting triage.

Recycling and phantom supply
On the supply side, the Institute leans heavily on recycling to close the gap. Recent numbers put total recycling near or above 200 million ounces per year, with industrial scrap alone around 120 million. That implies capture rates in electronics and other fabrication streams that are wildly out of sync with what practitioners see in real recycling flows.

Copper scrap recovery, even for a metal that is physically easy to extract from end‑of‑life equipment, struggles to stay below 50%. Silver, by contrast, is atomized, printed, laid down in microns, and embedded into complex assemblies. To hit the Institute’s industrial recycling numbers, you’d need recovery rates approaching half of all fabricated silver in key sectors—data centers, wind, military electronics—where in practice almost nothing is being recaptured at scale.

When you test their recycling claims against realistic fabrication flows from the late 2010s, the implied recapture overshoots plausible limits by tens of millions of ounces per year. The effect is simple: paper supply is inflated, real deficits are muted.

The real story: a compounded deficit
If you rebuild the 2026 balance sheet from the ground up—strip out hedging as “supply,” cut recycling to realistic levels, and let industrial, solar, data‑center, military, jewelry, and silverware demand grow at rates consistent with GDP, copper, and the actual hardware build‑out—you land on a deficit more than 1.2 billion ounces larger than the Institute’s published figure for the year. Extend those corrections over the last eight years and the cumulative shortfall likely exceeds 5 billion ounces.

That is not a rounding error. It is the difference between a manageable mid‑double‑digit annual deficit and a market where physical demand has been outrunning mine supply by close to 50% for years. And it matters, because the entire renewable transition, AI build‑out, data‑center boom, aerospace industry, silver solid state batteries, nuclear cooling rods, and modern military stack are metals‑heavy systems built on finite, non‑renewable inputs—especially copper and silver.

When the core industry narrative pretends those inputs are plentiful and easily thrifted away, rationing is delayed, risk is mispriced, and the eventual adjustment is guaranteed to be far more violent. From the Silver Academy vantage point, what we are watching is decades of suppressed price discovery, comfort built on bad data, and a physical market that is far tighter than almost anyone in the mainstream is prepared to admit.

Credit: John Macintosh, “Silver Institute in Wonderland: Compounded Errors” (SilverSeek).

Pirma turi nugesint paraboloida ir tik paskui pratest wall of worry del sidabro trukumo. Cia naftos ekvivalentas-gryzta i pre war lygius ir nuo ten normalus bull trendas iki ATH

Kur to paraboloido pradzia? 45

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Kadangi fundamentaliai ekonomika nuo 2020 yra toje pacioje paraleleje kaip nuo 1970, tai grafikai yra beveik identiski, kas duoda siokias tokias gaires kaip viskas gali pasisukt

Prikabintos bylos

o kur Grandas pradingo, kai jo labiausiai reikia?

gal užsidaręs rūsyje skaičiuoja nebesvarbius centus?

o taip norėtųsi vėl išgirsti jo skardžiabalsį: „sidabras – 60!“, „sidabras – 50!“, „sidabras – 40!“

bent jau turėtume orientyrą, kur maždaug dugnas. kol Grandas tyli, net signalų normaliai nėra.

Tau Vejas aiskiai parase,kad uz savo bircoina lusto nepagaminsi, kad tik tau ir sayloro avims jis turi mistine reiksme, bet sidabras skaiciuoja 6 tukstmeti, kaip jis naudojamas, tavo po 6 tukstmeciu,net nebus niekas girdeje apie kazkoki niekala kazkokiame sitmetyje,nebet vienuoliu almanachuose bus irasas, prie svoguneliu manijos paraleliai...

Tavo kvailoj skaitmeninej galvoj sidabras 50, establishmento pakalike.

Grand uzsirove ant to pacio kas buvo 2011, kai silveris atidirbo visa pagrindini judesi vienu mauku ir tada pradejo leta ir skausminga ilgameti dowtrenda.

Dabar lygiai tas pats paishosi.

Nauja banga i virsu gali ismest nebent naujos eskalacijos karuose.

Grand - mulkis, lygtais kazkas naujo.

2011 situacija buvo priesinga dabartinei-jokio infliacinio spaudimo, jokio paklausos spaudimo, jokios fiskalines drausmes ir monetarinio streso.

Kaip dvi monetos puses.
Siandien turim viska priesingai-didelis infliacinis spaudimas, paklausos bumas, fedas turi prilaikyt vadzias ir turi nedaug laisves kelt ar kirpt, didelis stresas ir nepasitikejimas bondu rinkoj-kas yra pozityvu monetariniams metalams.

Manau net nereiks metu galo sulaukt kai gold/silver jau bus vel uptrende.

Nu jis gali padaryt dar kokia koja i virsu, ir ne viena, bet kiekviena ta nauja koja nedarys ATH, panasiai buvo ir anksciau.

Dabar irgi buvo viena koja iki 90 ir vel vozesi zemyn.

Sidabras yra nelikvidas ir jis paiso visiskai dalbajobiskus grafikus, kai auksas plius minus reaguoja greitai i visas situacijas rinkose ir ekonomikose.

Jau vien del to neapsimoka prie jo lyst.

Pagal sidabro rali siais metais virs 100 galima sprest kad sidabras yra beveik nenaudojamas coverintis nuo infliacijos.

Todel kad jisai jau milijonas metu kaip turejo reaguot i visus infliacinius spaudimus.

Auksas kirto savo 2011 ATH 2020-ais, nuo 2022 pabaigos ten pastovus ralis del karu ir infliacijos.

O sidabras toks ispudis kad tiesiog smauke per visa ta laika, kol 2026 kazkokie hedge fundai pagaliau atkreipe demesi - e blet, gera kaina, o davaj padarom pump and dump.

Kaip tare taip padare, ir vel grand verkia kamputyje iskrustas establishmento.

Tu establishmento uzpakalio laizytojau gyveni salyje su 20% infliacija ir kalbi apie infliacini spaudima? Tu ir tavo santaupos yra pagaidintos totaliai kiekvienus mielus metus. Ant ko kiti uzsirove ne tavo supi$tas reikalas.

Buvo laikas sidabra pirkti, buvo laikas parduoti, o tu cia tik bliovei kvailas establishmento uzpakaliu laizytojau. Tad patylek ir dabar.

Kiekvienu kritiniu momentu tu ateidavai cia pabliauti. Pigus liurbis esi.

Joa, pagaidintas gerai esi, matosi pagal tona. Matyt apsipirkai su svertais prie 120, achahahaha.

Asilas.

Blet koks tu nevykelis, per tiek metu nieko nesupratai apie birzas.

Tie patys establishmentai, tie patys nesibaigiantys sidabro deficitai ant zemes, tos pacios pasleptos infliacijos po 20 procentu per menesi.

Ir taip daugiau nei 10 metu.

Ir supranti kad zmogus jau nepasikeis, su senatve jam bus tik blogiau.

Finaline stadija bus kaip pas markusa matyt

vata aktyvus kazkoks,matyt fronte nebesieina, ar jau prie antifryzo perejai...

Infliacija pasaulyje tikrai didelė. Čia vienareikšmiškai. O metalai visada istoriškai vasarą pigesni. Gali būti, kad pasaulio laukia didelė krizė, sumažėjo ekonomikos aktyvumas, gal jis irgi prisidėjo prie metalų pigimo. Bet dabartinė metalo kaina tikrai yra apie dugną kažkur.

Tai reikejo ir pirkt metala kuris geriausiai tam tinka t.y. auksa. O ne gavno, kuris atreaguoja i infliacija praejus 5 metams, kai jau viskas infliuoja taip kad tik dumai ruksta.

Ir po to vel krenta i mesku trenda neaisku, kur vel nezinia kada is jo iseis.

Auksas turejo labai normalu steady trenda, kuris ejo banga po bangos, ATH po ATH.

Sidabras paprasciausiai skaitomas kaip pavelavusio retailo irankis. Pavelavusio i Auksa. Taip istoriskai kartojasi visa laika-Auksas eina, retailas spokso, paskui gena silveri is paskos. Veliau auskas normalioj korekcijoj, o sidabra dumpina.
Sakyciau grynai spekuliacinis irankis, mazai ka bendro turintis su kazkokia ekonomine ar industrine verte kai kalbam apie kainos dinamika.

Ir jis nera tas kuris reaguoja i infliacija, jis tiesiog reaguoja i Auksa. O Auksas stabiliai perkainojamas pagal infliacija, cia nenugincysi.

Jei imt 2020 kaip atskaitos taska(sisteminis shokas), tai nuo to laiko maisto kainos soktelejo daugiau nei 2x, NT-irgi daugiau nei 2X, nuoma ir kitos populiarios consumables-2-3X. Auksas per ta pati laikotarpi nuo 1500 iki 4K. siek tiek daugiau nei 2x.

Stabiliai islaiko savo verte. Marketai patampo guma siek tiek i abi puses per ta laika, bet galiausiai kaina gryzta prie nominalo-1 ounce perkamosios galios nekintamos vertes.

Sakyciau siai dienai pagal infliacijos lygi 4K yra tikroji Aukso verte ir viskas kas yra zemiau yra undervalued ir turi buti perkama.

Aukso augimo pagrindine varomoji jega yra populiacijos nerimas del savo santaupu perkamosios galios silpnejimo.

2011 metais nepaisant to kad FEDas pumapvo QE, populiacija neturejo jokio nerimo del santaupu nuvertejimo. Pagrindinis nerimas tuomet buvo vos pries 2 metus buves crashas ir praktiskai visi dar ilgai gyveno to crasho baimes seselyje. Tai buvo laikas kai visi bijojo del kapitalo losso, o ne del infliacijos. Del to tokie asetai kaip silveris praktiskai neturejo jokios utilizacijos bet kokiam portfelyje, nebuvo jokiu argumetu ji laikyti, kas ir virto i 9 metus trunkancia korekcija.

Siai dienai pinigu yra, visi ju turi po 15 metu buliaus ir yra labai sunerime del ju perkamosios galios mazejimo. del to monetariniai metalai, ir aplamai komodai vis labiau yra priimami kaip anti infliacinis realus turtas ir tas trendas ateityje tik stipres. Anksciau dar bondu rinka buvo stiprus konkurentas Auksui(po 2011 visi paniskai bego i bondus) bet po 2020 ten pasitikejimas dingo ir siai dienai liko tik komodai, gal dar crypto kazkiek.

Sekantys 10 metu bus labai smagus komodu sektoriuj, ko gero smagiausi per visa istorija

kapituliacija silver ETF fronte

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