Kodel Auksas krenta net jeigu infliacija kyla

⭐ 1. Rising inflation does NOT automatically mean gold goes up
This is the biggest misconception in macro.

Gold doesn’t care about inflation by itself.
Gold cares about real yields.

Here’s the rule:

Gold rises when real yields fall.
Gold falls when real yields rise.

Inflation is only one part of the real‑yield equation.

⭐ 2. Rising inflation can actually make real yields RISE
This is the part most people miss.

Real yield formula:

Real Yield =Nominal Yield −Expected Inflation

If inflation rises, but nominal yields rise even faster, then:

real yields go up

gold goes down

This is exactly what’s happening now.

⭐ 3. Why nominal yields rise faster than inflation
Because the bond market is saying:

“Inflation is rising? Fine — then the Fed will stay higher for longer.”

“More inflation means more rate hikes or fewer cuts.”

“More inflation means more Treasury supply and higher term premiums.”

So investors sell long bonds, pushing yields up.

This is why:

30‑year yield ↑

10‑year yield ↑

Real yields ↑

TIP ↓

Gold ↓

Everything is consistent.

⭐ 4. Rising inflation → rising nominal yields → rising real yields → gold falls
Here’s the chain:

Step 1 — Inflation rises
Markets expect the Fed to stay tight.

Step 2 — Nominal yields rise
Bond investors sell long bonds.

Step 3 — Real yields rise
Nominal yields rise more than inflation expectations.

Step 4 — Gold falls
Because gold hates rising real yields.

This is why gold can fall even when inflation is rising.

⭐ 5. So where does rising inflation fit in?
Rising inflation is the trigger that causes:

higher nominal yields

higher real yields

lower TIP

lower gold

Inflation itself is not the problem — it’s the policy reaction and bond‑market repricing that crush gold.

Yieldai yra finalinej bangoj nuo 2020 ir nemanau kad eis labai aukstai. Auksas paprastai randa dugna pries yieldams topinant ka manau ir matysim ateinanciom savaitem kazkur 4300-4200 diapazone.

Prikabintos bylos

Korekcija gerai atrodo kaip baigta ir Auksas rodo stipruma kylanciu yield fone. Tikejausi kad dipins kazkiek zemiau bet 4450 gali buti geras dugnas. Ta proga toliau didinu agresyviai visas mineriu pozicijas.

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TIP pradeda kilti (real yields down), kas yra Aukso NR1 varomoji jega. Ar TIP turi buti 5 bangos ar tik 3 ilgesniu laikotarpiu neaišku, bet tiktu abu varinatai, , tik penkiabanges atveju dar siek tiek apacion TIPsas turi eit iki reverso tasko, bet nenustebciau jei nuo cia prades kilt ir galiausiai iseis i new highs, kas butu bulish breakoutas Auksui.

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TSX jau beveik ATH ir galima interpretuot judejima kaip serija 1-2, nebent reversintu kaip tik nuo sio tasko

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Du pagr sunkiasvoriai Agnico ir Wheaton galetu dar siandien paskutine sesija kazkiek dipint bet strukturos jau faktiskai leidzia full blown reversa

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Cameco dar gerai butu pamatyt viena dipa link 100, bet URA ETFas ko gero jau surado savo low. Man kaip pirkejui zemesnes kainos labai welcome

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Two years ago gold hit a record at $2,450. 🥇
Today it sits above $4,500.
That is an 84% gain in just 2 years.
The people who called it a bubble at $2,450 are very quiet right now.

auksas per 2 metus pakilo 84% ir visi rėkę bubble tyli? rimtai?

bitcoinas nuo 2020 dugno pakilo ne 84%, o keliais šimtais procentų, be sandėliavimo, be apsaugos, be transportavimo, be central bankų manipuliacijų.

auksas per 5000 metų taip ir liko tiesiog blizgantis metalas, kurį reikia saugot seife ir tampyt per sienas. bitcoinui užtenka 12 žodžių galvoje.

ir čia dar neblogiausia dalis — visas aukso market cap’as praktiškai nejuda, nes jauni žmonės jo nebenori. visi kapitalo srautai po truputį eina į skaitmeninį scarcity.

auksas yra praeities pinigai. bitcoinas yra interneto eros pinigai.

Auksas yra naudinga iskasena.

BTC toks nera, nebuvo ir nebus. Cia yra esminis skirtumas.

Neina.

Auksas nuo 2020 irgi pakilo keliais simtais proc.

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worst case scenario for Gold jeigu WPM ir AEM nuimtu buvusius Kovo dugnus

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Kolkas juda gerai ir dugnai laiko, ta proga siandien dadejau ant GDX ekvivalento MNRS kuris tapo max pozicija portfelyje

nukirtus wave B topa ir ten uzsitvirtinus jau pradedu buildint gera bull case Auksui.

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Tas Leading indikatorius yra faktiskai matematine formule is MA Rate of change bet jie naudoja ji apie 40 metu, matomai turi vertes

According to the Aden Forecast, their leading indicators:

Are based on the rate at which a moving average is changing, measured in percentage terms.

Turn ahead of price, helping anticipate trend changes.

Identify overbought and oversold conditions using historically defined zones.

Because moving averages smooth price, and the rate of change of the moving average smooths it even further, the indicator tends to:

Turn before the moving average turns

Turn well before the price turns

This is why the Aden Forecast calls them their favorite indicators.

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