Artėja kažkas įdomaus:

FED rate ciklas irgi palaiko galimą rimtesnę korekciją:

sitas geras, tik interpretacija butu kitokia-recesijos istoriskai budavo kai SP500/Gold ratio ieidavo i finaline wave 3 stadija arba wave C pabaiga, tik didesniam lygyje(didesneje bangoje).
Siuo metu Ratio kaip tik yra panasioje stadijoje, kur dar vienas dipas iki new lows uzbaigtu 5 bangas down nuo 2024 topo, bet kadangi bangos lygis mazesnis, recesijos pobudis neprilygs 1974, 1981 ar 2009 recesijai, o gal isvis bus isvengta per FED finansini engineeringa..

Didesne recesija butu po to, kai ratio ieitu i free fall teritorija , didesnio lygio wave 3, zymiai zemiau nei Mean Reversion linija, kas ir budavo istoriskai.

Ant Dow Grafiko recesijos susideliotu mazdaug taip

Prikabintos bylos

Major Top Tier Anglies produceriai+ Mid Tier ASX NHC. Bull marketas, buy the dip.

Prikabintos bylos

Coal futures ready to go balistic

Prikabintos bylos

Aciu uz minusus, atrodo gerai

Sell HOG @24.59USD, +21% per 3 mėn.
Neblogai, kaip seniukui..

Ką ML1 geresnio siūlai???

Pirkau IE00BK5BZX59
Per tą laiką, kaip rašiau, padarė +35%

Kas paklausėt ir paprastą akciją pirkot, padarėte apie +13/14% su kuo ir sveikinu.

Man with Shorts



Sveikinimai!

Dar meškoms paskaudės kažkiek:

Kai yieldai suksis, sitas nasdaq ralis baigis. Kolkas dar eina.

⭐ 1. Nasdaq’s best run ever = “last gasp” liquidity + AI mania + positioning squeeze
When yields rise sharply, you’d expect tech to fall.
But when tech rises anyway, it means something very specific:

Positioning, liquidity, and narrative are overpowering macro for now.

This happens in only two environments:

✔️ Late‑cycle melt‑ups
(1999, 2007, 2021)

✔️ AI‑driven narrative bubbles
(2023–2026)

In these phases:

investors crowd into mega‑cap tech

volatility collapses

passive flows dominate

short‑covering accelerates

fundamentals stop mattering temporarily

This creates historic runs even while macro deteriorates underneath.

⭐ 2. Tech blow‑offs ALWAYS happen before yields roll over
This is the key.

In every cycle:

Yields surge → Tech melts up → Yields roll over → Tech cracks → Commodities take leadership
This happened in:

2000

2007

2018

2021

You are watching the same sequence.

The Nasdaq melt‑up is not a contradiction — it’s a warning.

⭐ 3. Why Nasdaq can rally while commodities also rally
This only happens in late‑cycle inflationary expansions.

The logic:

copper rises → supply shortage

silver rises → industrial + monetary bid

oil rises → inflation persistence

yields rise → central banks behind the curve

tech rises → liquidity + narrative + passive flows

This is the “everything up” phase before the break.

It never lasts.

⭐ 4. Why gold is flat while silver/copper rise
Because gold waits for real yields to fall, not nominal yields.

Right now:

nominal yields ↑

inflation expectations ↑

real yields = flat

Gold is waiting for the yield rollover you mentioned.

When yields fall:

gold breaks out

TIP breaks out

silver accelerates

copper enters phase 2

tech loses leadership

This is the classic macro handoff.

⭐ 5. What happens if yields stop rising and start falling
This is the moment everything flips.

If yields roll over:

✔️ TIP breaks out
Real yields collapse.

✔️ Gold breaks out
Gold stops being flat.

✔️ Silver accelerates
Silver loves falling real yields.

✔️ Copper enters a second leg
Copper leads the commodity super‑cycle.

✔️ Oil grinds higher
Oil doesn’t need to spike — it just needs to stay tight.

✔️ Nasdaq loses leadership
This is the moment the melt‑up ends.

✔️ Miners outperform everything
This is the rotation you’ve been tracking.

⭐ 6. The key insight
Nasdaq’s historic run is not a contradiction — it’s the classic late‑cycle melt‑up that happens right before yields roll over and the macro regime flips toward commodities and inflation hedges.

You are watching the final phase of the tech‑led cycle.