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Prikabintos bylos

Na ,,pridirbimas "tai pagal asmeninių trumpalaikių tikslų koregavimą.Vienos dienos permažai išvadoms,kad žemesni targetai
butų atšaukti.
2,4h išbaigtos ,todėl daily gali laisvai iki 5100.Weekly tarsi neprieštarautų ir daugiau 5250
Lygtai planavom 2-3 bangas žemyn ,aukštyn ....Tikiuosi dar gauti 4000 ar žemiau,esamam cachui.
Bet jei žiūrėti long terminam ir ramybei tai super butų ,kad rautų(po 6000) to the moon????????????

Manai BHP dar dusins zemiau, RIO jau ATH. Kolkas nematau jokiu svariu 5 bangu nuo praeito men dugno niekur, bet jos gai pasirodyt tik kai naujus topus numus

Prikabintos bylos

Šitose tik dalinai au įtakoja .Gal daugiau geležis(plieno paklausa )ir kitokių metalų kompleksas.Todėl labiau jautrios ekonomikos nuosmukiui ir labiau sinchroniškos stokams . Galiu klysti ,bet lengva pasitikrinti užsimetus 3 viename RIO,GOLD,DOW montly.

Yra tiesos, bet juos laiko praktiskai visi resource etfai kaip top holdingus. Bhp is gelezies isiena po truputi, jau 50% copper sedi, ant gold ir silver su WPM uzsedo, zodziu tinkama kryptim juda. Pades dar taska Samarco byloj ir tik sky is the limit


Platina lipa, manai dar testa padarys/ Cia blyn jauciu kaip tas dugno fenomenas veikia. As jau tris kartus nuo jo buvau uzejes ir vis issoku atgal, bet kuo toliau tuo labiau marketas confirmina kad sitas judesys isies iki ATH, ypac kai su ta fake tribange ant Gold nuo dugno nuejo kuria visas YT nusitvere kaip bearish paterna ir dar iki siol ten korekcijas delioja

Prikabintos bylos

Kas cia pas copper-paraboles saknys tikriausiai. Comodai rauna aukstyn, nafta 200usd, visi prisimena EV ir elektrifikacija, saules, vejo , tam viskam reikia tiek copper kad net siandien jo negali normaliai isgaut prie stagnacijos, o jei demand isaugs, tai is kur jo paims kai naujoms copper mines reikia 10 metu infrastruktura vystyt. Arbitrazas bus tik kainoj, kokius 2-3x.
BHP, RIO-major copper produceriai.

Prikabintos bylos

Platina lipa, manai dar testa padarys
Žinai ,kuo toliau į mišką tuo daugiau medžių...
Aš jau senai bandau apriboti žinias nuo sumaišties tokiu principu:
Gold yra ,kaip DOW ,
Varis yra,kaip SP,
Sidabras,platina,paladis ,GDX,GDXJ yra,kaip nasdakas .
Imi flagmaną ,,indeksą "ir planuoji ....

bakso indekas kyla, tes metalu kritima, plius pades akciju rinka sidabras netqi fainiau judes po pratarqovkes zemyn

drozem drozem ir pridrozem. Svarbiausia drozti. ir qapa uzdaryt

https://ibb.co/d0LYzy4z

Perleidau per Daily Auksa tai vistiek isikabines laikosi kad tas topas buvo major 3 Topas, priesingai nei Silver. Zodziu ko gero tikesim Gold, o ne silver. Tokiu atveju man braizosi toks scenarijus

Prikabintos bylos

Uztrapino bulius ko gero Trumpas

Skamba logiskai tokioj aplinkoj. Silver nuo nauju topu prades lagint del industrial input, kitaip tariant suva prades begt pabrukes uodega, ar taip issifravau? Ilgu laikotrapiu. 5m +

WPM labai pavojingas grafikas, skaiciuojasi visos 5 nuo pat 2016 dugno. Taciau yra vienas dar pavojingesnis aspektas kurio nieks kolkas nemato-nuo 1916 approx dugno pas seneli Auksa taip pat yra 5 bangos. Nezinau ar yra dar ten kokia nors viena banga kur nors 18 amziuj ir tt kuri leistu pushint sita parabole dar auksciau. Turetu buti. Bet jei bendrai paemus stokus skaiciuot nuo 1930 ir Auksa kazkur nuo tu laiku tai cia toks fuckas gali but kad sunku isivaizduot.

As perleidau visas atskiras bangas nuo kiekvieno major piko ant Mothly ant Aukso ir ten viskas susidelioja kaip complete nuo pat 1916. Ar tik sitas Nasdaq bubble popsas kartu su fiatu nesukure kazko rimtesnio nei mes galvojam? Retorinis klausimas, bet paraboles buna retracintos iki ten nuo kur pradejo eit paraboliskai, siuo atveju Gold yra tarp 200 ir 500.


Cia tik dar vienas informacijos bitas apmastymui taip sakant. Tie atskaitos taskai toks suktas reikalas.

Kita vertus cia yra 12m Closes Aukso grafikas, tad jo luzimo pikas bus registruotas tik siu metu pabaigoj kur jis ten bebutu. Kitaip tariant tai ka mes skaiciuojam ant Aukso smulkesniuose intervaluose vis dar gali padaryti naujus High ir nuo ten nukrashint ir 12m Grafikas vistek gerai atrodys. Ir viskas kas liko ten ant aukso tos finalines bangos turi baigtis sekanciais metais nes 12m close grafikas jau registruos zemesni pika ant 2027 uzdarymo. Kitaip tariant turim apie 18 men visiems pikams surankiot. O Gold mineriai tai ko gero jau done, na bent jau is WPM puses ziurint, yra kitu grafiku kuriu neziurejau, bet WPM yra industrijos lyderis. Gal kokia banga kur praskaiciavo ir kas pasikeis. Labai jau daug tu GAL...

Prikabintos bylos

Kažkaip sudėtingai labai žiūri su tomis eliot bangomis.
O gal viskas paprasčiau? Seniau palūkanos buvo apie 10 proc, infliacija maža, o dabar palūkanos arti 0.
Tai realiems aktyvams tik į viršų ropoti. Čia bus AU, AG, metalai, NT, žemė ir visa kita. Skirsis tik greičiai ropojimo.
Blogėjant JAV ekonomikai, aišku kad bus pinigų spausdinimas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIhna5aIBhQ smagiai ziurisi, tikriausiai visi sulauksim ,kokia forma neaisku.

Tai tame ir esmė. Tik tu žiūri per eliot bangas, o aš per FA.
O palūkanų didinti nesigauna, nes visi prasiskolinę ir crashas iškart Tada visokie neramumai.

Gerai, paklausiau AI hipotetinio scenarijaus kad nefantazuot, kas atsitiktu jei butu 50% fall





🟥 PHASE 1 — THE CRASH (0–30 days)
U.S. market cap today: ~$54 trillion
50% crash: –$27 trillion wiped out

This is what happens mechanically:

1. Forced deleveraging
Hedge funds, pensions, CTAs, risk‑parity unwind

They sell everything liquid

Treasuries get dumped → yields spike

Numbers:
10‑year yield jumps from 5% → 6.5–7.5%

VIX spikes to 80–100

S&P falls 40–50%

Nasdaq falls 50–60%

2. Credit markets freeze
Corporate bond spreads blow out

High‑yield spreads jump from 350 bps → 900–1200 bps

Investment‑grade spreads jump from 100 bps → 300–400 bps

This is the “no bids” moment.

3. USD spikes violently
Global margin calls → USD demand

DXY jumps 10–15% in weeks

EM currencies collapse

This is identical to March 2020 and October 2008.

4. Gold wobbles briefly
Even at $4500, gold can dip 5–10% in the forced‑selling phase.

BTC drops 30–50% in the same window.

🟧 PHASE 2 — THE FED INTERVENTION (30–90 days)
This is where the numbers get big.

⭐ QE required to stop a $27T collapse
Historical QE-to-stabilization ratio: 25–30% of market cap loss

2008: $3.6T QE → stabilized $15T market

2020: $4.5T QE → stabilized $17T crash

So for a $27T wipeout, the Fed would need:

⭐ $6–8 trillion QE
This is the minimum to stop the freefall.

1. Treasury yields collapse
Once QE starts, yields reverse instantly.

Numbers:
10‑year yield falls from 7% → 2–3%

Real yields go negative

Mortgage rates drop from 8% → 4–5%

This is exactly what happened in 2008 and 2020.

2. USD reverses and weakens
After the initial spike:

DXY falls 10–20%

Capital rotates out of USD

FX volatility explodes

3. Gold enters a new regime
Gold at $4500 is already pricing stress.
QE + negative real yields = repricing.

Numbers:
Gold moves $4500 → $5500–7000

Not a spike — a new valuation regime

This is proportional to past QE elasticity.

4. BTC crashes then rebounds
Crash phase: –40–60%

QE phase: +100–200% rebound

Liquidity + fiat debasement = support

🟨 PHASE 3 — THE AFTERMATH (3–12 months)
1. U.S. market stabilizes but does NOT fully recover
After a 50% crash:

Market cap stabilizes around $30–35T

Not back to $54T

Volatility remains elevated

2. Inflation returns
QE + supply stress = inflation resurgence.

Numbers:
CPI rebounds to 6–9%

PPI spikes 10–15%

Real wages fall

This mirrors the 1970s pattern.

3. Treasury curve stays artificially low
Because the Fed is the buyer of last resort.

10‑year stays 2–3%

Real yields negative

Yield curve steepens artificially

4. Commodities explode
Oil: $120–180

Copper: $6–8/lb

Iron ore: $150–200

LNG: record highs

This is the classic stagflation commodity supercycle.

5. AUD strengthens
Because Australia is a commodity superpower.

AUD/USD moves 0.65 → 0.80–0.90

ASX resources outperform

Banks underperform

6. Real estate diverges
Commercial real estate: –20–40%

Residential: nominally flat, real –5–10%

Rents: +10–20%

🟩 PHASE 4 — THE NEW REGIME (1–3 years)
1. Gold becomes a core reserve asset
Central banks increase gold reserves.

Gold stabilizes in the $6000–8000 range.

2. USD loses dominance at the margin
Not a collapse — a slow erosion.

More trade in CNY, EUR, AED

More gold settlement

More bilateral trade agreements

3. U.S. equity market becomes smaller relative to GDP
Market cap/GDP falls from:

200% → 120–140%

Still high, but no longer bubble territory.

4. Commodities remain structurally elevated
Because supply cannot expand fast enough.

🎯 FINAL SUMMARY (the whole scenario in one line)
A 50% U.S. market crash wipes out $27T, triggers $6–8T QE, collapses yields, weakens the USD, sends gold into a new regime above $5500, and shifts the world into a commodity‑driven, inflationary, multipolar environment.

Tam kad Auksas kristu iki 500, turi buti tokie scenarijai

🟥 Scenario 1 — Ultra‑deflationary collapse (the opposite of stagflation)
This is the mirror universe of the world we’re in.

What must happen:
Global credit markets implode

Massive defaults

Money supply contracts violently

Banks fail without QE

Fed refuses to print

USD becomes extremely scarce

Real yields spike to +8–10%

CPI goes deeply negative

Why gold collapses:
Gold is priced inversely to real yields.
If real yields go to +8–10%, gold mathematically collapses.

Numbers:
USD skyrockets

10‑year yield: 8–12%

Real yield: +6–10%

CPI: –5% to –10%

Gold: $500–700

This is basically Great Depression 2.0, but with no QE and no rescue.

🟧 Scenario 2 — A global monetary reset that demonetizes gold
This is extremely unlikely, but theoretically possible.

What must happen:
Central banks dump gold reserves

A new global reserve asset replaces gold’s role

Gold loses monetary premium

Digital settlement systems dominate

Nations agree to stop using gold as collateral

Why gold collapses:
Gold’s price is 60–70% monetary premium, not industrial demand.

Remove the monetary role → price collapses to industrial value.

Numbers:
Central banks sell 10,000+ tons

Gold premium evaporates

Industrial demand supports only $400–600

This is the “gold becomes copper” scenario.

🟨 Scenario 3 — A technological breakthrough that makes gold abundant
This is sci‑fi, but still a scenario.

What must happen:
Asteroid mining becomes economically viable

Massive new gold supply floods the market

Extraction cost collapses

Supply increases 10–50×

Why gold collapses:
Gold’s value is based on scarcity.
Remove scarcity → remove value.

Numbers:
Annual supply increases from 3,500 tons → 50,000+ tons

Price collapses to $300–600

This is the “gold becomes aluminum” scenario.

🟩 Scenario 4 — A global return to strict gold convertibility at a fixed low price
This is a political scenario.

What must happen:
Governments peg gold at a low fixed price

Convertibility enforced

Gold becomes a utility asset, not a market asset

Why gold collapses:
Price is no longer market‑driven.

Numbers:
Peg set at $300–600

Free market gold banned or restricted

This is the “Bretton Woods 2.0 but worse” scenario.

🟦 Scenario 5 — A world where inflation collapses and real yields stay permanently high
This is the opposite of the current macro regime.

What must happen:
Productivity boom

AI deflation

Energy abundance

Zero inflation for a decade

Real yields stay at +5–7%

USD remains structurally strong

Why gold collapses:
Gold hates high real yields and strong USD.

Numbers:
CPI: 0%

10‑year yield: 6–8%

Real yield: +5%

Gold: $500–900

This is the “AI deflation world”.

🎯 One‑sentence summary
Gold at $500 requires a world with massive deflation, extremely high real yields, a USD super‑spike, or a collapse of gold’s monetary role — all of which are the exact opposite of today’s macro environment.

Isvada tokia-viskas Dedes Fedo rankose., ar jie atsisakys Spausdint ar ne.

Jei neatsisakys ir spausdins toliau, kito scenarijaus as cia nematau-kils iki tol kol miningo industrija neprikas tiek aukso, kad uzflodins marketus ir jo kaina colapsins ne del monetary priezasciu o del oversupply.

Isvertus tai reiskia-kai tik WPM parabole bus nugesinta-strong Buy

Prikabintos bylos

Tavo AI daro vieną pagrindinę klaidą.
Jis sako akcijos kris 50 proc, auksas gal 5-10 proc. NT vertė gal 10-40 proc.
Bet jis nutyli vieną momentą. Kad bus kalnas bankrotų ir žmonės praras pinigus akcijose, obligacijose, dar kažkur, nuvertės pinigai sąskaitose. Tačiau realus turtas auksas ir kitas vistiek išliks ir bus kažko verti, nes išsaugos turtą. Ir DZIN kokia bus to turto kaina, nes kiti tiesiog praras pinigus.
AI neužsimena apie totalų pinigų praradimą visokiose investicijose
Neužsimena, nes ši mintis yra TABU visuomenėje