Auksas yra toks dalykas, kuris numato įvykius prieš 1-2 dienas arba kokį kitą laiką į priekį. Pvz. numatomas koks karas, arba katastrofa ir auksas brangsta, nors visa media dar tyli arba sako atvirkščiai. Todėl prekyboje auksu galioja visai kitokia prekybos logika. Aš auksą naudoju daugiau kaip indikatorių, kad kažkas bus įvyks, ko aš dar nežinau.

Gal ir gera tokia logika, naudoti kaip indikatorių Geras sprendimas.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20171015a.htm

October 15, 2017
The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

Chair Janet L. Yellen

At the Group of 30 International Banking Seminar, Washington, D.C.

The biggest surprise in the U.S. economy this year has been inflation. Earlier this year, the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reached 2 percent, and core PCE inflation reached 1.9 percent. These readings seemed consistent with the view that inflation had been held down by both the sizable fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar starting around mid-2014, and that these influences have diminished significantly by this year. Accordingly, inflation seemed well on its way to the FOMC's 2 percent inflation objective on a sustainable basis.

Inflation readings over the past several months have been surprisingly soft, however, and the 12-month change in core PCE prices has fallen to 1.3 percent. The recent softness seems to have been exaggerated by what look like one-off reductions in some categories of prices, especially a large decline in quality-adjusted prices for wireless telephone services. More generally, it is common to see movements in inflation of a few tenths of a percentage point that are hard to explain, and such "surprises" should not really be surprising. My best guess is that these soft readings will not persist, and with the ongoing strengthening of labor markets, I expect inflation to move higher next year. Most of my colleagues on the FOMC agree. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, my colleagues and I project inflation to move higher next year and to reach 2 percent by 2019.

To be sure, our understanding of the forces that drive inflation is imperfect, and we recognize that this year's low inflation could reflect something more persistent than is reflected in our baseline projections. The fact that a number of other advanced economies are also experiencing persistently low inflation understandably adds to the sense among many analysts that something more structural may be going on.

Po šio pasisakymo ar nebus, kad auksas šoktels aukštyn??

Nu infliacijos faktas ner. O ka ji sako man px

Parsheli tu gal palikai shortus per savaitgali

ja ja

Siandien kazino martingeilu astuonis kartus pakeliau savo pinigus ant ruletes, tai gal atpirks judesi siandien ant aukso

Na aš ir pats palikau shortus per savaitgalį, tai jaučiu bus žopa, kai eis aukštyn. Reiks vadinas pirk dabar auksa, kad kilimo profitas nuimtu shorto minusa. Visvien po kažkiek laiko tada galėsiu uždaryt short pozicijas

Tai gi sakei kad auksas iskart kur reikia neina...

Tai vat kad neina iškart. Turiu pilna shortų ant aukso, tai dabar eis į viršų. Bet atsidarysiu ir į long pozicijų. Taip sumažinsiu minusą. Tai jau nebus pasirinkimo, ar į viršų ar į apačią, visvien kažkur pelną paimsiu, nebent kaip tyčia smaukysis 1-2 dolerių terpėje

Increased tensions over North Korea could spike prices higher next week, but this will also be triggered by a combination of speculative buying and short-covering. I don’t think this rally is going to go very far if these two factors control the price action since gains are likely to be limited by expectations of rising rates and strong demand for higher-yielding assets.
The charts indicate that gold is likely to run into a wall of resistance at $1312.60 to $1324.40. This area could kill the rally over the near-term and should be watched carefully.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/price-of-gold-fundamental-weekly-forecast-approaching-wall-of-resistance-at-1312-60-to-1324-40-443890

Dabar šalia Korėjos kokią savaitę (tiksliai nežinau) vyks JAV laivyno manevrai ir auksas turėtų nepigti kol laivai nepasuks atgal į namus. Nes bet kurie manevrai reiškia aukščiausią kovinę parengtį ir bet kuriuo metu gali pradėti karą.

Jau supratau, kad su shortais prisizaidziau;D Bet jeigu tik uzdaryciau pozicijas, kaip tycia atgal pajudetu....

Gal ir neprisižaidei, nežinau
https://vz.ru/news/2017/10/15/891009.html
Президент США Дональд Трамп является противником военной конфронтации с КНДР, хочет решить проблему дипломатическим путем, заявил госсекретарь Рекс Тиллерсон.

Kaip čia jis priešinasi, jei per telika ir kitus portalus tik ir teduoda, kad užtenka diplomatijos reik imtis veiksmų. Aišku tai gali būti sakoma plačiai visuomenei, gal giliau pažiūrėjus jis visai kitko nori. Betkokiu atvėju naudos iš to išpeš jis tikrai.

Tyla prieš audrą:
In other news, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators cut their net long position in COMEX gold contracts for a fourth straight week to October 10. This means that recent rally was fueled primarily by short-covering and not new buying which is a potentially bearish development.

Yellen’s comments may be strong enough to drive up U.S. Treasury yields which should make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment. A firmer Greenback could drive dollar-denominated gold lower because of a drop in foreign demand.
We’ll know the impact of Yellen’s comments on the gold market later today when we see trader reaction in the Fed Funds market. If the odds of a December rate hike increase to over 90 percent then last Friday’s gains fueled by the weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data could be erased.

Turėtų kaip ir leistis žemyn. Parsiuk išsigelbėjimas ateis šiandien ;D

i virsu neuzteko siandien jegos, gali grizt i praejusios w zvakes viduriuka

Sidabras tuoj pramus .45 ir bus katalizatorius Au. Nors karta turi tai nutikt. Kartais ir Ag rinka uzduoda tona.

pazekit xauxag, jei sis nulaikys ~74.50/.00, tai xau targetai 1325ish pirmas ir tada jau ziuret, kas shortint norit, ar i breakouta. Kol kas rinka tokioj dispozicijoje, kad metalai ziuri i virsu, visi. Pvz maineriai gdx irgi. Tai sakyciau, jei tikites nusiviretimo, geras santykis ties tais lygiai su prioritetu i auksa.

Turbūt po Federal Budget Balance (Sep) auksas eis žemyn