sliux [2014-07-08 08:03]:
Aukščiau minėtą kanalo viršų AUD/USD trumpam pramušė, bet staigiai ir gana agresyviai grįžo atgal, kas rodo silpnumą. Po staigaus kritimo dabar vėl bandoma lipti link kanalo viršaus, tad manau čia yra neblogas short setupas. Pardavinėjam truputį virš 0,94 sl 0,95 tp 0,925

FX Forecasts: We have retained our 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts for the A$/US$ at 0.90, 0.88 and 0.86 (revised on June
25, 2014 from 0.85, 0.82 and 0.80).

Motivation for Our FX View: Our bearish A$ forecast is underpinned by improving US data, intensifying headwinds to Australian growth, a terms of trade now in structural decline and evidence that capital flows are turning less supportive. The bulk of the forecast AUD weakness could come in the next 3-6 months if, as we expect, the RBA cuts in September.

Growth/Inflation Outlook: After an unusually benign cyclone season temporarily boosted net exports in 2014Q1, GDP growth is on track to decelerate sharply through 2014 as the mining construction boom unwinds, key commodity prices decline and the non-mining recovery falls short of expectations. This should keep the unemployment rate elevated, with significant spare capacity and muted import prices weighing on already benign inflationary pressures. Following a material downside surprise in 2014Q1 CPI, we expect the repeal of the carbon tax to strip ~70bp from inflation over FY2015.

Monetary Policy Forecast: While maintaining a neutral policy stance, recent RBA commentary has tilted more dovish. Our forecast 25bp rate cut in September would likely be a catalyst for a welcome downshift in the AUD, and mitigate the pressure on growth momentum as fiscal pressures intensify, mining capex unwinds, and lower commodity prices and wages undermine national income. Further ahead, we expect the first interest rate hike to be delayed until 2015Q2.