Beveik teisingai supratote. Melynas kvadratas tiktais yra limit buy (jo kaina taip ir nepasieke), o pelna nusiemiau apacioje, kur melynas trikampiukas (short orderi padengiau long orderiu). Kad lengviau butu suprast, paint'o pagalba raudonom/zaliom linijom sujungiau orderius.

Gal kam bus idomu, visai nebloga (ir neshalishka) fundamentalios analizes savaitine apzvalga. Tikiuos anglishkai visi skaitote.

Fundamentals
The basic question now is about recovery of economy. Is economy on the way of recovering or not? What signals of recovering we see now:

- Growing stock market;
- Slowdown of decrease in initial claims, non-farm payrolls indicators;
- growing of real estate market;
- growing of PMI Index, and consumer confidence index.

Is this really enough to say, that recovery is under way? Not necessary. Let’s to dig a bit deeper and try to find out what is going on in reality…

Primary role of consumer spending.
Everybody knows, that firms and corporations receive profits, when consumers spend their money to buy stuffs, services etc. As a result, if consumers have no money, corporations and firms have no possibility not even to grow, but to work also. When consumers loose their job, they loose a personal income, so consumers’ spending goes down. So as a result, for talking about recovery, we need to see stabilization and growing employment, then consumer spending and then retail sales growing. Also, the level of personal saving should go down, because people intend to save more in difficult times, and spend more when they have more confidence in tomorrow day.
What Federal Reserve did by their programs? They have tried to fulfill markets with liquidity – they have issued a huge amount of cash. Central bankers extended their $300 billion U.S. Treasury securities purchase program by a month in August and continue buying up to $1.25 trillion in agency mortgage-backed securities and $200 billion in the debt of agencies including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The reasons were twofold. First is to stimulate consumer credit by commercial banks and as a consequence – consumer spending. As a result, consumers will have cheap money (rates are on lowest levels), and will spend them. It should help to firms and corporations, and all should begin to work. Second – liquidity is necessary to hold mortgage rates on low levels to stimulate real estate market, housing starts and contiguous industries. The point is when you buy a house – you usually also buy furniture, TV make some repair work etc. All these things are stimulate consumer spending. All seems good, but there is a one problem – unemployment.

Unemployment
It looks like that unemployment is almost stop growing. Non farm payrolls still decline, but speed of declining become slower as initial claims. B. Obama said, that we can reach 10% unemployment rate. But if we watch the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions, then we get another numbers. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent. Besides, initial claims indicator has some nuances – they count only INITIAL claims for help on unemployment and this bulletin works only about a 1 year. If you did not find a job, you need a secondary claims. Now is period, when the previous claims term is almost finished. Soon, people will have to ask for help again and this indicator will go up.

Real estate market
The housing data isn't very good as some see it. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors, a Chicago-based trade group. A report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based in Washington, showed the share of home loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent in the second quarter, an all-time high.

Stock market growth
The situation, when government personally takes part in saving of economy had a big influence on expectations of investors. Investors said: "Wow, politicians personally try to save our economy; they do all the best to short the recession term, and stocks so cheap now. They have almost unlimited possibilities. I should buy cheap to take a piece of this cake." A government fiscal program is spurring short-term growth that may not last. This short-term results of improving just have created a bump, that can lead to a more precipitous decline later. OPEC has reduced quotas for the first time for 5 months, and it had happened when oil is growing, why? It can mean only one thing – although price goes up, demand stands low. It's like a growing market with low trade volumes, and we all know what happens next... So this kind of growth has no foundation. And we already have first signs of it. Let's look at FR minutes on 12 Aug 2009. There is no agreement between members of Federal Reserve, because they have expected other results from their program and sooner rather than later.

Here are just some talks:


Federal Open Market Committee members discussed extending the end date of the agency and mortgage-backed bond programs, minutes of the group’s Aug. 11-12 meeting showed yesterday. The move would be aimed at avoiding disruptions in housing credit at a time when recovery prospects are clouded by rising unemployment and slowing wage gains, analysts said. While the economy is projected to expand this quarter, central bankers had "particular" concern about the job market, signaling that the FOMC may need to see a peak in the unemployment rate before it begins withdrawing monetary stimulus. Some policy makers saw dangers of "substantial" declines in the inflation rate, yesterday’s report showed.

"They need to see labor markets improve and inflation stabilize, and not fall, before they even have a serious discussion about increasing interest rates," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and former member of the Fed’s research staff.

"They see positive economic growth, no job growth, a very slow decline in unemployment, and a huge vulnerability to anything that could shock confidence," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. "I would be really surprised if they tightened at all next year."

A number of policy makers judged that a "tapering of agency debt and MBS purchases could be helpful," the Fed minutes said. Officials postponed a decision on extending the initiative, which is scheduled to end in December.

Central bank officials have indicated differences on when to begin withdrawing the monetary stimulus.


"We have to begin to pull back from our extraordinary programs," Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday while noting a risk of faster inflation in the future. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, he declined to say whether the Fed should begin raising the main interest rate next year.

Fed district bank presidents Jeffrey Lacker of Richmond and James Bullard of St. Louis last week said the central bank may not need to complete its purchases of mortgage securities. New York Fed President William Dudley by contrast stressed an exit is "premature," citing "high unemployment" and weak growth.

Policy makers saw the economy recovering "slowly" in the second half of this year, and still "vulnerable to adverse shocks," the Fed minutes said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner cautioned yesterday that it’s too early to remove policies aimed at reviving the economy.

"We've come a very long way but I think we have to be realistic, we’ve got a long way to go still," Geithner told reporters in Washington as he prepared to leave for a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers on Sept. 4-5 in London.

Most Fed officials expected "subdued and potentially declining wage and price inflation over the next few years," the minutes said. "A few saw a risk of substantial disinflation."

"They are not tightening anytime soon," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC in Washington, which manages about $100 million. "They are going to be sitting there with unemployment approaching 10 percent and inflation falling."

As a result, High unemployment, lower wages and potential missteps by policymakers around the globe may stifle economic growth in 2010. Governments try to fight deflation, but numbers suggest that they loose the battle.


Results. My opinion is that too early to talk about recovery. How it should be a recovery, if we see growing unemployment, distressed consumer spending and powerful disinflation. There are no signs yet, that Fed will go to tightening. Fed’s even could not find consensus amongst the members.
As a result, I expect high volatility on currency market during nearest 2Q. I think that we will not see any direct trends during this period (if situation will not change radically). So, the best way trading is catch a small moves, trade on volatility. When we see the gradual improving in labor market and consumer spending, then we can expects dollar grow, because of reasons, that I’ve mentioned in previous research. If my forecast become a reality, may be we will see some technical dollar strengthen – when stocks begin to fall, investors will need cash to close their leverage positions.

For the nearest week (07 – 11Sept):

The main data that can influence on EUR/USD peer are:
Sep 8 – Consumer Credit;
Sep 10 – Initial claims;
Sep 11 – Wholesale inventories.

kas atsitiko, negaliu nuskaityti, raso, kad nebebera to failu .

Plius jei nesunku pasidalink, kaip juos interpretuoji.

Dekui

Senai istryniau, vietos nebebuvo. Gi cia paprasti Stochastics, RSI, ir TRIX, ir MACD, ir CCI.

Daug budu juos interpretuot, cia buvau daug sudejes is keliu sistemu.

Minimalius pagrindus gauk is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lc8788xU7Y&feature=channel,
ten daug tu pamokeliu, yra ir apie tuos indikatorius.

USD/Jenai svarbus periodas. Kaina vaiksto tarp 2 stipriu support/resistance: 92-94.

Ne gartley darau. Dazniausiai pasitaikancias formas.
Pastebek, beveik visu trendu judejimas panasus buna. Tiesiog jei atitinka fibonacci, buna ishvis perfect.

EDIT: Vistiek aciu uz pastebejima:]

Seip kadaise irgi domejausi butterflies,gartleys, crabs.

Dabar kai nors ir kitokia sistema dirbu, tai man panasiai kaip tau, setup'as vistiek gaunasi mini-butterfly, ar koks nors mini-gartley

Turejau omeny indikatoriu priederint prie serverio laiko.

Jei turi sistemele kuri duoda 70%-80% tikimybe profit - labai gerai.
O harmonics'ais prekiaudamas, dazniausiai skaiciuoji target'a pagal harmonics'a,ar dienos pivot'us?
Ar mixuoji?

Na, pries entry daug kas i stochastics'a uzmeta aky

Ok, dekui uz answers.

Siandien JAV iseigine - Labor Day.

Labai tiketina, kad diena gali gautis nuobodoka..

tikriausia todel verta ir LT treideriams pasinaudoti proga ir pailseti ar pasitvarkyti kokius reikaliukus mieste ;)

Rugsėjo 7d. 12:20 GTM+2 laiku

EUR/USD
Sell @ 1.4378
T/P @ 1.4348 next @ 1.42
S/L @ 1.44.53

USD/JPY
Buy @ 92.68
T/P @ 92.98 next @ 94
S/L @ 92.13

EUR/JPY
Buy @ 132.57
T/P @ 132.87 next @ 133.57
S/L @ 131.97

AUD/USD
Buy @ 0.8498
T/P @ 0.8538 next @ 0.859
S/L @ 0.8468

EUR/CHF
Buy @ 1.5154
T/P @ 1.5184 next @ 1.152
S/L @ 1.5124

sell aud/usd 0.8558 tp 0.8465.sl 20

Tikiuosi nepamiršot, kad jankiams šiandien nedarbo diena. Rinka sekli - geriau nelįsti.

Aha, rami diena šiandien. Bet va GBP gražiai, kad ir lėtai kyla, gal pavyks +20 pip surinkti.

Audro, kur galima rasti tokį indikatorių-informaciją? http://fxtrade.oanda.com/tools/statistical_information/fx_open_orders_summary.shtml šitas netenkina, nes sunku ten ką nors įžiūrėti. Jūsų pateikta versija daug informatyvesnė, nes matosi ne vien grafikas, o ir skaitinės vertės.

Nu ir neaktyvi diena. Kirto trend'a jokios reakcijos.
Fixuoju 5 pip nuostoli ir siandien no-trade.



Nu bleeet! Pritruko tik kantrybes