|2023-01-27 14:34 #736859|
Jekabs [2023-01-27 12:53]:Let's hope it continues
There is no inside information. However, at the shareholders' meeting, the CEO said that the company feels very good in all 3 segments (Aranet, Spectrum compact, Microwave solutions). It's not that big profits are because just one segment suddenly shot up;
Vanitas vanitatum, et omnia vanitas
|2023-02-08 21:59 #738916|
Disappointing at first - quarterly profit "only" 1 million; However... Looking at the balance sheet, we remember that SAF works with projects - when the projects are handed over to the buyers, then the profit appears. Section "finished products" over 7 million EUR!
Another interesting moment. This was the first year when the company paid income tax on paid dividends - 20%; This reduced the profit by 400tk; Plus marketing and space expansion;
In general, the view is optimistic and good profit in May!
|2023-02-08 23:12 #738939|
in best case scenario let's anticipate share drop less than 10 % tomorrow
N I E K A D A
|2023-02-09 08:51 #738952|
So finally SAF became fully USA based company revenue is doubling in USA, same FTE count shows that company has reached some maturity level in their strategy.
On financials Q2 results always impacted by timing -> I won't be optimistic of 7m EUR goods income in next quarter but looking on CF and balance liabilities to customers already paid I do expect at least 50-70% of that amount to jump into Pnl in next quarter.
Regarding CIT taxes -> yes new LV law required to pay full CIT if you decide to pay out divs are kicking in in full amount of ~15% CIT level, when it was previously only effective CIT of 5%.
On costs side -> becoming USA company goes through salaries (same FTE count but +20-25% total payout-> great company to work for and hope so bonus system does correlate with final Pnl rows as well)
6months does show clear guideline with less quarterly fluctuations ->
- REV on same FTE count + 30%
- EBITDA has increased +35% (5m EUR vs. 3.7m EUR) (interesting to get more understanding where they will use x 2 size of new rented plot area)
- FX currency USD/EUR as they become more USA company will be key factor how they will manage (delta yoy +0.25m EUR in extra costs)
- CIT level already discussed above.
Strong first H1 -> in H2 period for them expect +4-4.5m EUR in netprofit -> making annual at 7.5-8.0m EUR net profit at least. EPS is above +2.5-2.7 and P/E being at 4.5-5 remains interesting going forward on div yield -> need more info on next strategy direction, but seems like 0.6-0.7 EUR/@ (optimistic FC i will keep for myself )
Looking forward for some news update on aranet products sales in USA + UK/USA schools air meter installation project results (their only my rough estimate stand for 20-30m EUR expectation in next 2-3Year, slight on lower side due to money costs increasing)
p.s. price drop today I plan -5-8% -> so open window to buy in if planned results are fulling your expectations and getting div size premium vs. yesterday's price
Redaguota: jeronimas (2023-02-09 10:58 )
|2023-02-09 11:04 #738978|
Still looking at the Inventories section - there is "Allowance for slow-moving items" - 2 million EUR. This, in my opinion, creates additional earnings potential for future quarters.
In the coming quarters, additional large savings for the warehouse will no longer be made. This will positively affect the cash balance; The expansion of the premises must also be finished; As I wrote earlier, management was optimistic about the development of all product groups in shareholder meeting.
I am much more optimistic about dividends.
|2023-02-09 11:21 #738981|
Jekabs -> can you share you view on Profit/EPS or div per @? Would be great to compare and set direction on more optimistic side
|2023-02-09 11:35 #738982|
I think that the dividend will not be less than 1 EUR per share, unless something extraordinary happens; My forecast is that the cash balance at the end of the year will be sufficient to pay out 3 mln. But, purely from the mental side - in the CEO's explanation about dividends at the shareholders' meeting, I felt regret that higher dividends are not paid with such good profits; This was attributed to the need to grow the warehouse due to supply chain problems; Now these problems have subsided.
Of course, this is my subjective view!!!!!
|2023-02-09 11:54 #738985|
So 0,6-0,7 EUR/@ conservative -> and >1EUR/@ is more optimistic guideline
|2023-05-11 12:03 #750989|
Uch.....-50% yoy in bottom row.
Cogs and people extracosts ate all profit....
At balance 4-5m eur are standing as finished/almost good, so q3 was either really weak quarters or it just accounting timming issue with projects execution.