scout - kazkodel paveiksliuko nerodo. Ar kiti matote?

Šitas inv. H/S labai gerai sutaptų ir su EW: galutiniam 5(5) bangos susiformavimui reikia paskutinės duobės, kad užbaigtume Primary 1. Na o po to reboundas būtų smarkus, jei pasitvirtintų tiek H/S, tiek Primary 2 pradžia.

LONG TERM: bear market
With the stock market now into its eighteenth month of the bear market we have the potential for the first completed wave pattern of Primary degree. We have been expecting this bear market to unfold in three Primary waves: ABC. Primary wave A would complete the first low, followed by a strong Primary wave B, and then a retest or lower lows in Primary wave C to end the bear market. Primary wave A has subdivided into three Major waves: Mar 08 (SPX 1257), May 08 (SPX 1440) and potentially Mar 09 (SPX 667). Major waves A and C have subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Major wave B was a simple counter-trend rally. The five Intermediate waves within Major wave C are defined as: Jly 08 (1200), Aug 08 (1313), Nov 08 (741), Jan 09 (944) and currently Mar 09 (667). Should the Mar 6th low at SPX 667 hold, and OEW then confirms a new uptrend, we can expect a Primary wave B rally to follow lasting several months. Historically, using similar bear markets (1929-32, 1937-42, 1973-74) as a guide, a Primary wave B rally can retrace as much as 50% of the entire bear market in about five months. The bear market decline thus far has been from Oct 07 (SPX 1576) to Mar 09 (SPX 667): 909 points. A 50% retracement would drive the SPX to 1122. Our Primary wave B target, all along, has been between the OEW pivots at SPX 1107 and 1179. Even after a 58% decline in the SPX, the waves and the pivots are still in alignment. After such a massive decline, a 50% retracement rally sounds quite extraordinary. But it is really only a rally back to the September 08 levels.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
The downtrend that started in early Jan 09 at SPX 944 appears to have unfolded in five waves. This is the typical wave structure for every downtrend during this bear market. The characteristic for the first four of the five downtrends, has been a relatively strong second wave followed by a weak fourth wave. This characteristic altered during the volatile fifth downtrend between Aug 08 and Nov 08. That downtrend offered two fakeout volatile rallies, first in mid-Sept. and then in late-Oct. Those rallies were the second and fourth waves of the downtrend. During the current downtrend the market appears back to its normal characteristics: a strong second wave and weak fourth wave. With this in mind we have maintained the count posted on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. The five waves during this downtrend are defined: wave 1 (804), wave 2 (875), wave 3 (742), wave 4 (780) and wave 5 at the recent lows (667). When attempting to define a downtrend low we naturally rely on the pivots, fibonacci and several technical indicators. At the recent low there were positive RSI divergences on every timeframe except the monthly, which is the most oversold it has been since the 1930's. There is also a positive RSI divergence in market breadth (NYAD pg.5), and the VIX (pg. 5) is now downtrending. Also of note was tuesday's surge in up/down volume. The 27:1 reading was the highest since Sept 07, while the bull market was still ongoing. Lastly, during the volatile Aug-Nov downtrend, not once did the market surge on a week to week basis, until that downtrend ended in late Nov. Then, the market bottomed on friday Nov 21st and surged 10.9% the following week. This downtrend appears to have ended on friday Mar 6th and this week it surged 9.9%. In summary, probabilites suggest that the downtrend ended on March 6th at SPX 667.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX remains at 734 and then 717, with resistance at 768 and then 789. Short term momentum was getting overbought again at the close on friday. The rally from the lows looks impulsive, and is not choppy like the rallies during the downtrend. In fact, on a very short term basis this rally has maintained support from the SPX 673 secondary low on monday. The rally has also been interesting in its dealings with the overhead pivots. On monday the SPX rallied to 695 (the 696 pivot) and was turned away. Then on tuesday the SPX broke through the 696 pivot, rallied to 720 (just passed the 717 pivot), and closed there. On wednesday the SPX rallied to 732 (the 734 pivot) and was turned away. Then on thursday the SPX broke through the 734 pivot, and rallied to 753. Finally on friday the SPX rallied to 758, just under the 768 pivot and closed there. It does appear that the SPX may challenge the 768 pivot before any sizeable pullback, (more than 22 points), occurs. Best to your trading!

Noreciau paklaust Rimto ir Scout-:
Tokie ultrashort proshare kaip QID, ADZ,REW,SCC,SMN rodo H/S. Kas lyg bylotu, jog pirmadieni tiketina kelione i siaure...
Kaip pakomentuotumet siu sektoriniu Ultrashort Proshare signalizuojamas tendencijas???

nesimato

Ish mano pozicijos... NASDAQ noretu zemiau pavaziuoti. Kaip norit taip projektuokit (galim dar vienu budu suprojektuot) Ir VISI rodo, kad projektuojamas lygis nepasiektas.
Kiek teko susidurti, su H/S tai vienas patikimiausiu shablonu. Spreskite patys.

Bandziau ikelti paveiksliuka apie ka kalbu, bet irgi nesimato... hmm.. gal kokie dydziu reikalavimai yra?

Ziurejau visus tos grafikus,aisku jie padeda.Bet jie neziuri naujienu,o preita savaite ,kai paskelbe C,MS,BAC kad jau sios metus pradejo dirbti pelningai,rinkos pradejo kilti.Ir bijau kad investotojai jau patikejo kad finansose nurasymu nebebus,aisku jeigu ju pranesimai nemelagingi.Jai istikruju nurasymu nebebus,tai finansai ir toliau tik kils.

trumpos korekcijos belaukiant:

Susidomejas tais grafikais,ir as likau ant ledo,dabar ziuriu kaip nureda traukinys,ir rieda vis greiciau.Labai noreciau klysti,bet abejoju.

Vyga, ko tu grafikuose nerandi? Taigi viskas puikiausiai juose atsispindi - dabar vyksta 5 bangos pagal Elliota 4 korekcine subbanga, del ko ir vyksta atsokimas. Taigi grafikai puikiausiai atspindi tas naujienas. Prasides greit bendroviu I ketv.rezu skelbimas, tada nuleisim nemazai garo, bet paskui uztat imsimes sustainable atsokimo Jei nebus garo nuleidimo, tada braizysim kitus scenarijus

Linksmas,niera jokio kritimo atgal,tik kilimas i virsu,o banku rezai pagal ju kalbas,gali but geri.

Na panasu pagal es.mini futures) kad isandien 775 turetu pasiekt SP, bet nuo cia manau ir koreguosis trumpam.

Vyga, as ir nematau dar kritimo, nes kol kas kylam, bet nejau nepateisini net savaites didesnio ralio, kai pries tai bemaz puse metu sedejom juodoj skylej?

Trupam - to new low?

Trumpam.

Manau idealiausia vieta pasibaigti šiam meškų rinkos raliui yra prie 800p žymos. Dieniniam grafike ten susieina EMA50, krentančio trendo linija ir paskutinės kritimo bangos fibonaci 50% atšokimas:



Aš asmeniškai laukiu progos ten pashortinti..

sliux
bet tai yra 5.6% nuo dabartinio SP lygio, manau be trumpos korekcijos indeksai tiek neuzvaziuos. Del viso kito as pritariu

Sliux,

su visa derama pagarba, bet taip niekas fibonnacci neskaičiuoja, nėra jokios sąsajos (pagal EW tu skaičiuoji galima atšokima 1(5)-3(5) bangos ilgio ašžvilgiu - t.y. net trijų bangų sąsaja su viena (4(5))). Jei tą patį padarytum skaičiuodamas vien tik 3(5)bangos ilgį, tuomet viskas ok. Pagal mane 770,90 - die or live levelis.

scout_ cia kogero sliux remiasi DOW teorija. Mano galva - jei ta euforija taip ir toliau tesis raliukas gali buti iki ~800, kaip tik ten ir kanalo virshus ir 50 DMA. Ir fib retracementas, arba simple retracementas. Zodziu pora dienu ralis dar gali booti. Ir dar... tas milzinishkas SPX inverse H/S...

scout_, kodel 3(5) bangos pradzios taska laikai 02/10, o ne 01/28?