Na del skolos tai daugiaumaziau suprantama,bet del naftos 146 tai negalima taip delioti.Kiek menesiu(metu)laikesi tokia kaina?Kelias minutes ar valandas.Gal tada paprasciau butu skaiciuoti metu vidurki,nes toks palyginimas paprasciausiai nekorektiskas.O kaip maistas?...

Straipsnis apie QE2 ir jo įtaka ekonomikai ir kainoms (aišku čia irgi tik nuomonė).

http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov10/asset-deflation11-10.html

kaip jums vienos dienos judesiai bond'uose?

10-year sovereign yields (vakar- siandien)

Greece 7.095 - 8.640 +1.5%

Ireland 4.054 - 4.744 +0.7%

Portugal 3.259 - 3.794 +0.5%

Spain 1.618 - 1.804 +0.2%

p.s. o airiu matematika paprasta- tiesus kelias i EFSF:
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/in-keeping-with-halloween-heres-a-scary-one-2401299.html

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/02/390921/the-ecb-exit-hurts-hurts-like-negative-e12-6bn/
The European Central Bank wants out. That much is clear.
In recent months the ECB has been funding eurozone banks to the tune of squillions, with financials using government bonds, asset-backed securities and the like, as collateral. What happens to the banks though, as the ECB moves for the exit?:
for Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Greece a return to a pre-crisis (early 2007) average level of ECB funding would imply banks would have to shift some €82bn, €50bn, €103bn and €90bn, respectively of ECB funding to more market-based sources.
Using current iBoxx European bank yields for the first three countries — this would mean an increase in funding cost of €4.0bn, €1.7bn and €2.5bn per year respectively.

If you think peripheral banks can make up the extra cost with deposit funding — think again

there is a clear risk that removing ECB liquidity support will create a credit crunch in domestic peripheral economies.
ideally it should be combined both with recapitalisation of the banking sector and capping of peripheral spreads so as to reduce the cost of funding.

o rekapitalizuoti banku sektoriu tuo paciu mazinant valstybiu skolas- neimanoma, nes
valstybes islaidos = privataus sektoriaus pelnas (ir atvirksciai).

teisine Beno freestyle'o puse. Jei si mintis igaus platesni atgarsi- FED'o kontora Kongresas mesku rinkai progresuojant gali ir uzdaryti. Uztruks, bet tai butu jau ne pirmas kartas US istorijoje:

"fiscal authority is enumerated by the Constitution as the sole right of Congress, and spending is prohibited by the Constitution without explicit appropriation, it seems clear - regardless of how the Federal Reserve Act is written - that monetary operations involving anything but Treasury securities contain nconstitutional “fiscal component,” unless they involve repurchase agreements that would make the Fed whole even if the underlying securities were to fail. It is doubtful that when Congress drafted the Federal Reserve Act to allow the use of mortgage-backed securities, it ever dreamed that the Fed would purchase these securities outright when the issuer was insolvent. Until this issue is clarified in legislation, Bernanke will continue to see it as “perfectly sensible” for the Fed to make “money financed gifts” that substitute his own personal discretion for those of a democracy".

ir dar- aiskiai, paprastai: ilgalaike infliacija generuoja neproduktyvios valdzios islaidos, o ne swap'ai privaciame sektoriuje (aka QE2):
"To believe that changing the mix of government liabilities in the economy (monetary policy) is a more important determinant of inflation than the total quantity of those liabilities (fiscal policy) is equally misguided. Historically, and across the world, the primary driver of inflation has always been expansion in unproductive government spending".

http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-is-unconstitutional-2010-11?
http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-bernanke-has-engaged-in-fiscal-policy-and-is-unconstitutionally-usurping-the-power-of-congress-2010-11?

na ka, Requiem dar vienai valstybei:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1108/1224282865400.html

September marked Ireland’s point of no return in the banking crisis. During that month, €55 billion of bank bonds (held mainly by UK, German, and French banks) matured and were repaid, mostly by borrowing from the European Central Bank.
The German and French banks whose solvency is the overriding concern of the ECB get their money back.
The only difficulty is that the Government’s open-ended commitment to cover the bank losses far exceeds the fiscal capacity of the Irish State.

Until September, Ireland had the legal option of terminating the bank guarantee on the grounds that three of the guaranteed banks had withheld material information about their solvency, in direct breach of the 1971 Central Bank Act. The way would then have been open to pass legislation along the lines of the UK’s Bank Resolution Regime, to turn the roughly €75 billion of outstanding bank debt into shares in those banks, and so end the banking crisis at a stroke.

p.s. juokas, kad "the difference between Iceland and Ireland is one letter and few months" pasirode esanti graudi tiesa.

http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2010/fs101108.cfm

regioninio Dallas FED vadovo esamos padeties analize. Necituosiu, daug geru izvalgu, tik pabaiga ta pati:

senais gerais laikais valdzia isleisdavo, veliau dali surinkdavo atgal per mokescius- skirtumas/deficitas (~3%) budavo monetizuojamas.
"New normal"- kai isleidzia Centrinis bankas (Fed), o valdzia renka mokesciais atgal daugiau (austerity).
ir siame procese dar atrodo kaip geradejas, amortizuojantis valdzios sukelta trukuma (pvz. BoE)

na ka, tesiu monologa
[url=UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANICS OF A QE TRANSACTION] http://pragcap.com/mechanics-qe-transaction[/url]

idomus poziurio kampas, kad:
casha'as ir jo ekvivalentai- tai vyriausybes isipareigojimas, o privataus sektoriaus turtas. Arba:

suminis asmeninis turtas = suminiai kolektyviniai isipareigojimai.
visa kita- paskirstymo klausimas

ir zaidimas: "Kas ka praskolins daugiau?". Ir aiskus lyderiai:
1) FED ir kiti CB
2) Bankai
kita balanso puse lieka tik su kolektyviniais isipareigojimais. Ir nesvarbu kad dauguma prisieme juos kiekvienas asmeniskai.

p.s. Isrinktuju asmeninio turto gausinimui ir sklandziam kolektyviniu isipareigojimu vykdymui daugumoje saliu kolektyvine nuosavybe sparciai ruosiama pardavimui.

Bandai iš paskutiniųjų įkvėpti mirštančią temą ?

Tęskite Šiaurės vėjau labai įdomu paskaityti

artai, tiesiog dalinuosi idomesne po ranka pakliunancia medziaga

Nu ir as padesiu
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov10/Fed-QE2-11-10.html

Ne su viskuo šiame straipsnyje sutinku ,bet paskaityti verta

Kelias bado link?

siaures vejau saunu,kad imeti ivairiu paveiksliuku manau ne as vienas daug ko nesuprantu jei galetum truputi pakomentuoti (isversti) butu didelis aciu

tai kad cia viskas ant to paveiksliuko parasyta,tereikia tik perskaityti.. nelabai suprantu, ka cia dar galima komentuoti kur raudonai pazymeta, ten mes esame siuo metu - QE2; obama stimulus; retail stores closing...dabar esame state/local government budget crisis stadijoje, toliau paveiksliuko autorius prognozuoja corporate bancrutcies 2011metais, paskui 2012 metais pension funding crisis ir commercial real estate collapse ir t.t

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/15/404101/e1650bn-of-pain-for-europes-peripherals-socgen-says/

o vasara stress testas sake, kad 3,5b uzteks visos Europos bankinems skylems uzlopyti

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/johnson14/English

Idomus straipsnelis apie paskutini G20 susitikima (rusiskai)
http://oko-planet.su/finances/financesdiscussions/53025-mixail-xazin-itogi-g20.html

ka tik Nordea platino susietas obligacijas "Suomija" (go-go)

Truputis istorijos (labai panasu i esama situacija LT):
1990-uju krize Suomijoje

dabartis ir perspektyvos (pasirodo leti suomiai pasiruose sekti greitu lietuviu pedomis: hard/soft landing? atrodo kazkur girdeta):
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/10/bubble-trouble-in-finland.html

sako "nezinantys istorijos pasmerkti ja pakartoti"